Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 59924.385345 63423.179848 66926.403317 70694.503609 74630.132748 78616.685260 82957.307882
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 54118.274731 59439.448507 64921.499280 70982.626485 77487.375654 84249.773153 91802.647536
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 49844.356961 56378.358774 63262.939162 71039.637739 79561.509310 88597.621342 98884.925681
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 46729.974443 54178.168207 62174.876597 71369.490706 81618.970853 92662.633882 105430.597824
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 44027.267812 52175.094572 61069.191089 71455.536155 83206.538411 96044.038784 111082.523425
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42349.147321 51167.400308 60934.787960 72496.586302 85746.884883 100395.426471 117749.853756
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40222.844089 49505.227376 59930.390117 72429.860210 86928.854207 103136.662959 122540.159073
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39028.089963 48838.056368 59993.270758 73521.054234 89381.110564 107283.929163 128913.277618
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 37754.810558 48000.000004 59788.660007 74239.538072 91352.988827 110847.895153 134602.390808
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36210.585985 46760.902189 59042.240766 74256.181058 92449.883351 113359.001403 139046.448889
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 34721.216092 45520.127597 58232.274894 74139.596069 93340.482910 115592.907810 143143.634660
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 33911.218116 45069.445561 58337.655297 75091.696424 95483.407600 119292.662523 148974.143132
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33022.403449 44496.702228 58279.761264 75842.209115 97395.618029 122748.054557 154568.812375
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32003.663854 43721.807264 57940.740330 76222.080408 98842.060939 125643.382840 159507.583853
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 30903.876271 42801.270696 57383.071891 76297.894863 99890.601367 128044.262287 163849.140997
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30003.331182 42100.638304 57069.537632 76650.287758 101259.596149 130823.688391 168652.007551
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29037.294481 41279.266491 56571.437543 76742.037386 102282.924048 133168.588611 172924.254700
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 28579.647519 41103.553924 56880.416702 77844.193951 104565.230811 137065.511044 179118.912014
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 27635.685121 40251.760825 56290.904808 77773.593442 105351.419719 139102.806246 183020.340626
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27264.559743 40149.537734 56660.912946 78928.520607 107689.156428 143075.959820 189342.376392
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 26748.994231 39833.114705 56735.247367 79688.859891 109518.842059 146418.372192 194894.809533
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 25955.721509 39113.100588 56255.395397 79706.471649 110381.043332 148538.801313 198920.459612
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 25143.576328 38341.856659 55684.423603 79583.101217 111044.505943 150398.585392 202617.447395